Indonesia Infrastructure Report Q3 2012 (14 May)

We have revised down our 2012 construction forecasts for Indonesia, with real growth expected to reach around 6.9% in 2012 (previously 7.1%). This revision is primarily due to a government plan to cut fuel subsidies, which we believe is likely to reverse the conducive monetary conditions for construction activity. In addition, we believe there is a real risk that Indonesia's construction sector could fail to realise its long-term growth potential, as key regulatory reforms have either failed to transpire or been overturned We believe that these negative factors could lead to a lack of private investment and have thus revised down our forecast for annual average construction real growth between 2013 and 2016 to 7.7% (previously 7.9%). Key factors that will facilitate growth include:

In January 2012, PLN announced that it has identified 96 locations that are suitable for new hydroelectric power plants across the country, reports thejakartapost.com. PLN will develop 60% of the proposed facilities, with the remaining 40% to be offered to independent power producers (IPP) through a series of tenders. The power plants will have a total production capacity of 12,800MW.

In February 2012, the Indonesian government announced that it will undertake a feasibility study for the proposed US$13.9bn Sunda Strait bridge project during 2012. However, the government said that it would only pay IDR1.5trn (US$164mn), equivalent to 1%, of the project's total cost for the feasibility study. The 31km bridge will run between Anyer on the island of Java to Bakauheni on the island of Sumatra and be the largest inter-island edifice in the country. Construction is scheduled to start in 2014 and the bridge is expected to be operational by 2025. The development of the project is led by the consortium PT Graha Lampung Banten Sejahtera.

In March 2012, PLN announced plans to launch a tender for the IDR20trn (US$2.18bn) Sumatra-Java high-voltage-direct current interconnected project in April 2012. Construction is expected to start in 2013, with completion scheduled for 2017. Once completed, the system is expected to distribute 3GW of electricity from Sumatra to Java and Bali Island, or vice versa. The project involves the construction of a converter station in Muara Enim [South Sumatra] and an inverter station in Bogor [West Java]. The line will be used to supply power from South Sumatra to fulfil the rising demand for power in Java, with several coal-fired power plants being built in the former region.

Reference: Indonesia Infrastructure Report © Business Monitor International Ltd.

Indonesia Infrastructure Report Q4 2011

Executive Summary
Indonesia’s construction industry achieved lower-than-expected growth rates in the first quarter of 2011, prompting us to downwardly revise our full-year real growth forecasts for the sector to 6.3% in 2011 (previously 7.4%). We believe that this weaker growth is due to the rising cost of inputs and the fact there has been no resolution with regard to problems with regulatory issues in the construction sector. While the rate of inflation is likely to ease in the second half of this year, regulatory issues are unlikely to be resolved quickly, and this could have ramifications for the growth potential in the construction sector over the long term. Nevertheless, construction activity, driven by investment into transport and energy infrastructure, as well as industrial construction related to the country's growing mining sector, is expected to be relatively robust between 2012 and 2015, averaging 7.3% per annum.
Reference
Indonesia Infrastructure Report Q4 2011, © Business Monitor International Ltd.

Indonesia Infrastructure Report Q3 2011

EXCEUTIVE SUMMARY
BMI View: Indonesia’s construction industry has been experiencing exceptionally high levels of inflation over recent years; however, despite this trend real growth has been high, averaging 7.6% per year between 2003 and 2010. Although these high levels of inflation are expected to continue over the forecast period (2010-2015), the construction industry is still anticipated to post high real growth, reflecting the high levels of anticipated activity. This is being driven by investment into transport and energy infrastructure, as well as industrial construction related to the country's growing mining sector. In 2011 we are forecasting construction industry growth of 7.4%, and between 2011 and 2015 we are forecasting growth to average 8.1% per year.
Key factors that will facilitate growth include:
�� The Indonesian government is looking at issuing Islamic bonds to meet its financing needs. In January 2011, Bloomberg reported that the finance ministry had proposed to the Indonesian shari'a board – Majelis Ulama Indonesia – that revenues from new road and rail projects (due to be built over the next three years) should be used to repay Islamic bonds.
�� In December 2010, Japan signed a Memorandum of Cooperation (MoC) with Indonesia for the development of around US$24bn worth of infrastructure projects in the Jakarta Metropolitan Priority Area (MPA). However, the recent devastation wrought by the Tohoku Pacific earthquake that hit Japan on March 11 2011 has raised significant uncertainty about the future destination of Japanese investment and the project could now be delayed.
�� In March 2011, the Indonesian government announced that it may offer 16 infrastructure projects worth US$32bn to investors in April 2011. These 16 projects are to be offered under a public private partnership (PPP) framework and would focus on a wide variety of infrastructure developments; ie toll roads, bridges, railways, seaports, power plants, water treatment facilities and cruise terminals. However, only five of the 16 projects are currently ready for investment.
Indonesia’s business environment remains a downside risk for investors. Although the Indonesian government is working hard to attract private investors, there is still an underlying threat of corruption and a lack of transparency in infrastructure tenders. The biggest concern is that Indonesia appears to be regressing in its fight against corruption, with a raft of proposals – that if approved – would undermine current anti graft laws. This culminates in a score of just 55.6 out of 100 for infrastructure business environment.

Reference
Indonesia Infrastructure Report Q3 2011

Daftar Rencana Topik Penelitian S2 (Magister)

Berikut ini adalah daftar rencana topik-topik penelitian untuk tugas akhir atau thesis untuk program magister (S2) pada program magister "manajemen konstruksi" atau "manajemen proyek" :

1. Asset dan Kapabilitas Teknologi dalam hubungannya dengan keunggulan bersaing dan kinerja lestari perusahaan
2. Asset dan Kapabilitas Inovasi/Komplementer dalam hubungannya dengan keunggulan bersaing dan kinerja lestari perusahaan
3. Asset dan Kapabilitas Keuangan dalam hubungannya dengan keunggulan bersaing dan kinerja lestari perusahaan
4. Asset dan Kapabilitas Reputasi dalam hubungannya dengan keunggulan bersaing dan kinerja lestari perusahaan
5. Asset dan Kapabilitas Struktur dalam hubungannya dengan keunggulan bersaing dan kinerja lestari perusahaan
6. Asset dan Kapabilitas Institusional dalam hubungannya dengan keunggulan bersaing dan kinerja lestari perusahaan
7. Asset dan Kapabilitas Pasar/Posisi dalam hubungannya dengan keunggulan bersaing dan kinerja lestari perusahaan



Rencana penelitian ini merupakan lanjutan dari studi penelitian dari disertasi tentang manajemen strategik pada perusahaan konstruksi di Indonesia yang mengacu kepada paradigma strategi bisnis yaitu kapabilitas dinamis (dynamic capabilities framework) yang digagas oleh David Teece (1990,1994, 1997, 2007, 2009).



Kepada yang berminat terhadap topik-topik di atas, silahkan kontak ke mspamulu@gmail.com untuk diskusi lebih lanjut. Terima kasih atas perhatiannya

Indonesia Infrastructure Report 2011

Executive Summary

Indonesia’s construction industry value is expanding rapidly, a trend forecast to continue over our newly extended forecast period (2010-2020). This is being driven by investment into both transport and energy infrastructure, as well as industrial construction related to the country’s growing mining sector. In 2010 we are forecasting construction industry growth of 5.7%, and between 2011 and 2015 we are forecasting growth to average 7.2% per year. This quarter we have added a new section covering residential, commercial and industrial construction as well as social infrastructure.
Key factors facilitating growth:
• Indonesian government’s efforts to attract private investment into infrastructure. The government has employed a number of tools and enacted a variety of measures to facilitate investments and increase the number of public private partnerships (PPPs). Measures include the creation of the Indonesia Infrastructure Fund, designed to provide an alternative source of funding for infrastructure projects. Measures related to land issues are also being implemented, as land clearance is one of the major barriers to the country's investment climate.
• Strong and growing Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). FDI in Indonesia has grown substantially over recent years, from US$6bn in 2006 to US$10.8bn in 2009, according to the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board. This trend looks set to continue in 2010, with first quarter figures rising by 41% year-on-year (y-o-y) to US$3.92bn. Strong sectors for investment continued to be the transport, storage and communications industry, which recorded US$941.5mn investment for 23 projects and the mining sector, which attracted US$711mn for 12 projects. Both of these sectors demand supporting infrastructure, and investment into the sectors has buoyed the construction sector.
• Substantial investment plan for the power sector by state owned utility PLN. PLN is enacting a two phase ‘crash programme’ to expand electricity generating capacity, with each phase adding 10,000MW of capacity. PLN was targeting investments of US$7.9bn in 2010 and a further US$9.8bn for 2011.
• Transport infrastructure is receiving substantial attention, specifically freight networks. With heavy investment into the mining sector, accompanying railways and ports are being developed to export coal. Billions of dollars of investments in railways have been pledged in 2010, driving transport infrastructure growth over the next five years.
Despite a strong outlook, a number of factors could undercut prospects for growth. The first is very high inflation in the construction sector, driven by rising construction materials prices. According to a recent study of 11 countries in Asia, Indonesia had the fourth highest cement price in the region. Indeed, a 50kg bag of cement in East Java costs almost double what it would in China, according to the Jakarta Post.
With cement costs accounting for around 30% of project costs, the impact is notable. The main reason for the higher prices has been blamed on transport and distribution costs, and the uncertain electricity supply in the country is bound to have an impact. There are also concerns of collusion between cement makers, limiting production to drive prices higher. High prices could erode real value creation and if costs run too high, projects could become unfeasible financially.
The other threat is the business environment. Although the Indonesian government is working hard to attract private investors, there is still an underlying threat of corruption and transparency in tendering infrastructure. This culminates in a score of just 54.6 out of 100 for infrastructure business environment and 35.8 out of 100 for project finance ratings.

Ref.
© 2010 Business Monitor International: Indonesia Infrastructure Report Q1 2011

STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT PRACTICES IN CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY: A STUDY OF INDONESIAN ENTERPRISES

Since the establishment of the first national strategic development plan in the early 1970s, the construction industry has played an important role in terms of the economic, social and cultural development of Indonesia. The industry’s contribution to Indonesia’s GDP increased from 3.9% in 1973 to 7.7% in 2007. Business Monitoring International (2009) forecasts that Indonesia is home to one of the fastest-growing construction industries in Asia despite the average construction growth rate being expected to remain under 10% over the period 2006 – 2010. Similarly, Howlett (2009) places Indonesia as one of the 20 largest construction markets in 2010.
Although the prospects of the Indonesian construction industry have become attractive and very promising, many local construction firms still face serious difficulties, such as poor performance and low competitiveness. There are two main reasons behind the problem: the environment that they face is not favourable; the other is the lack of strategic direction to improve competitiveness and performance. Meanwhile, although strategic management has now become more widely used by many large construction firms in developed countries, practical cases or empirical findings related to the Indonesian construction industry remain scarce. In addition, research endeavours related to these topics in developing countries appear to be limited. This has potentially become one of the factors hampering efforts to guide Indonesian construction enterprises.
This research aims to construct a conceptual model to enable Indonesian construction enterprises to develop sound long-term corporate strategy that generates competitive advantage and superior performance. The conceptual model seeks to address the main prescription of a dynamic capabilities framework (Teece et al., 1997; Teece, 2007) within the context of the Indonesian construction industry. It is hypothesised that in a rapidly changing and varied environment, competitive success arises from the continuous development and reconfiguration of firm specific assets achieving competitive advantage not only dependent on the exploitation of specific assets/capabilities, but on the exploitation of all of the assets and capabilities combinations in the dynamic capabilities framework. Thus, the model is refined through sequential statistical regression analyses of survey results with a sample size of 120 valid responses.
The results of this study provide empirical evidence in support of the notion that a competitive advantage is achieved via the implementation of a dynamic capability framework as an important way for a construction enterprise to improve its organisational performance. The characteristics of asset-capability combinations were found to be significant determinants of the competitive advantage of the Indonesian construction enterprises, and that such advantage sequentially contributes to organisational performance. As dynamic capabilities framework can work in the context of Indonesia, it suggests that the framework has potential applicability in other emerging and developing countries. This study also demonstrates the importance of multi-stage nature of the model which provides a rich understanding of the dynamic process by which asset-capability should be exploited in combination by the construction firms operating in varying levels of hostility. Such findings are believed to provide useful to both academics and practitioners, however, as this research represents dynamic capabilities framework at the enterprise level, future studies should continue to explore and examine the framework in other levels of strategic management in construction as well as in other countries where different culture or similar condition prevails.

Dynamic Capabilities in Construction -- Interim Results for the 2009 Survey on Indonesian Construction Firms

I’m conducting a research survey as a part of my Ph.D study to elicit critical comments and feedback from Indonesian large construction firms regarding to their dynamic capabilities and industry specific factors that contribute business success in Indonesia.

The research is based on the Dynamic Capabilities Framework (Teece, D.J., 1994/1997 ; 2007/2009) and Five Forces Framework (Porter, M.E., 1985)

UPDATE:

10 April 2009 – This summary was prepared for the 31 March 2009 online based result only, the paper based versions were not included and the result given here is now outdated

Please contact me on +61 402155808 or email if you would like more information or a copy of research results.

Thanks, M. Sapri Pamulu